Why Solid State Drives Won't Replace Spinning Disk

Tagged: SSD, Computer Hardware, Technology
Source: enterprisestorageforum.com - Read the full article
Posted: 5 years 10 weeks ago

" It wasn't that long ago that solid state drives (SSDs) were DRAM-based and cost a fortune. Then the proliferation of mobile devices requiring shock and vibration profiles that exceeded hard drives created a huge market for flash. Prices dropped, and with more money available for R&D, the density increased dramatically.

It's been a period of tremendous evolution for flash, but I believe dark clouds are forming on the horizon. Let's start with a little history to help me make my point. I first heard more than 20 years ago that tape was dead, but it took data deduplication to make disk cheap enough to hurt tape sales. So it wasn't disk drives alone that were able to impact tape sales; it was disk drives combined with new technology.

Now we're hearing from some that flash drives are going to replace hard disk drives, and that the cost difference, though great now, will continue to decline. Vendors are putting out charts showing the cost of flash drives and hard disk drives converging, which looks to me like some of the charts I saw for tape and disk more than 20 years ago. I don't think it's going to happen any time soon, and the reasons have to do with lithography limits and disk drive density. "



Joined: 12/24/2003
Posts: 12

I agree. If Intel can only make a 600GB SSD with 25nm lithography, what about 8nm, if that is even possible to shrink die formations to that level? Maybe 6TB? I have no idea how that scales, but I know that traditional magnetic drives , 3.5" will be in the order of 100s of Terabytes before we reach the end of the line. 2.5" will be about 1/4 the capacity that desktop form factor drives can achieve. 1.8" will be about 1/2 the capacity of what notebook form factor drives can achieve.

But, consumers won't need drives larger than 6TB now will they? So it is mostly about cost, and the good thing about SSDs is that Intel could always cram a second PCB in the X25m to double the capacity .. they could do that somehow i'm sure.

I want a vertex 2 128GB for < $220.
Gimme please

Joined: 04/07/2010
Posts: 68

its hope like yours that make it possible. Dont forget that there are still costs that need to be brought down. While at some point in the future it will happen. Its not going to be soon. At the least 5yrs. Im guessing manufacturers will start phasing out production of HDDs in the next 10yrs.

d3uS2029's picture
Joined: 03/20/2003
Posts: 291

lmao good luck. spinning drives are dieing buddy

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