Intel chips to reach 15GHz by 2010

Tagged: intel, Computer Hardware
Source: Geek - Read the full article
Posted: 4 years 30 weeks ago

At the Intel Developer Forum in Tokyo, Intel CTO Pat Gelsinger stated that by 2010 Intel CPUs will run at up to 15GHz. These processors will contain a billion transistors. Didn't Intel claim at the most recent Intel Developer Forum that they would put 10 billion transistors on a chip by 2010? At that time, PDAs may run at up to 5GHz. Intel now has stated that the upcoming Prescott processor will scale to 5GHz, and that the successor chip should scale to 6GHz. Presumably, both chips would be based on the modified Pentium 4 core introduced in 2000. The question with the 15GHz microprocessor is what the Instructions Per Clock (IPC) will be. The IPC went down from the Pentium III to the P4. If the IPC stays the same, then Intel's chips would need to be running about 48GHz by 2010 to maintain the Moore's Law scaling type of performance increases we are used to. So, we must assume that Intel is going to use various architectural enhancements, such as multiprocessing and huge caches, to try and raise the IPC of this processor.

 

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Andreas Hofer
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Isn't that news roughly 7 years old? And I still remember that AMD showed a 3.13 Tera-Hertz CPU using lasers, behind closed doors. Also the amount of heat generated can only be avoided by using two methods. First you need to use better materials meaning production costs go way up. Second you would need to increase the Die-Size by at least 25cm, yeah that's right. at least. AMD said that they were using a compressor based cooling system with liquid nitrogen back than and that it would normally be powerful enough to serve a whole rack of very hot Thunderbirds. They also mentioned that it was just only a prototype. Also Intel claimed shortly after that they have reached a third of that speed using a less powerful cooling system. Either way both processors were using over a thousand watts in idle. Studies showed that by increasing the core speed, the heat rises exponentially. Shrinking the Die does not do any good either. It would be better to spread the transistors over a wider area so that they would not heat themselves up all the time and thus reducing the heat emissions in order to achieve those speeds without loosing the ability to cool them efficiently.
Even if they would do that, it would mean that the production costs for an i7 CPU would be 4-8 times higher and this may result in either less profit or budget processors starting at 1.999.

Anonymous

as processors get faster the heat and voltage do not rise in a linear fashion, so it will still be some time before this happens, it's easier to slap 12 cores together than get one core running at 12ghz.

Anonymous

Wow. That kinda bums me out seeing as I just bought an i7 last week :(

Anonymous

this is an old statement intel made at the beginning of the decade. not recently

Manic Mouse
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I believe the point of the article is to take a look back at what happened to some of the predictions people made 5-10 years ago.

This is a classic example where one man's vision did not map to reality. At the time that quote was made both AMD and Intel were locked in a Ghz race. Since that time both companies learned the hard way that that it is more efficient to do more work per clock cycle than doing little work in a whole lot more clock cycles.

Now if they would combine that thinking a bit.

What a novel idea ;)

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Tiv
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Last I heard Intel should have had out a 10GHz CPU, but for some reason it was canceled in favor of making more cores.

I sleep fine at night knowing we are banning people who deserve it.  Tivon
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Anonymous

oops. Intel and AMD are still only selling em at ~3Ghz, i think they were just a bit off